Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Monday that political promises made during separation campaigns risk becoming a “very dangerous bluff,” as Alberta prepares to hold an October referendum question on whether to remain in Canada or begin the process toward a binding vote on separation.
Speaking to reporters in Ottawa, Carney said separatist campaigns often frame a vote as a low-risk way to strengthen a province’s negotiating position. He rejected that argument and said history shows voters do not always get the outcome they believe they are choosing.
“This is an observation from experience. In these separation issues, it is often advanced that vote for this and it’s a free option. Vote for this and we will strengthen our hand in future negotiation. That is a very dangerous bluff,” Carney said.
Carney Cites Brexit as Warning for Alberta
Carney pointed to the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum, which took place while he served as governor of the Bank of England. He said the British experience shows how separation-style campaigns can create long-term uncertainty.
“I saw first-hand what happened in the United Kingdom when the view was vote for this, it will be (a) soft (exit) and then we’ll negotiate, etc. They’re still, 10 years later, trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for,” he added.
While leading the Bank of England, Carney warned that leaving the European Union might trigger a recession. A recent report said the U.K. economy has shrunk eight per cent in the nine years since Brexit.
Alberta Vote Puts Canadian Unity in Focus
Carney said he will campaign for Canadian unity, but stressed his approach will focus on “actions” rather than words.
“It’s practising co-operative federalism, with Alberta, with Quebec, with all provinces and territories in the country, with Indigenous Peoples as well.”
He said Alberta benefits from being part of Canada, including access to a large domestic market and free trade agreements covering 1.5 billion people around the world.
“Canadians take care of each other. We take care of each other in our social programs, we take care of each other across different provinces. We look out for each other internationally,” he said.
Energy Deal, Western Premiers Meeting Add Political Context
Earlier this month, Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said Ottawa and Alberta had agreed to establish a carbon pricing system and set a start date for a new oil pipeline aimed at exporting energy to Asian markets. Those commitments form part of a wider energy memorandum of understanding signed by Smith and Carney in November 2025.
Smith announced last week that the October referendum question will ask Albertans whether they want to remain in Canada or start the process for a binding referendum on separation.
The issue is expected to hang over the annual western premiers conference, which begins Monday in Kananaskis, west of Calgary. Leaders from British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, the Northwest Territories and Yukon are meeting for two days to discuss business ties and regional relationships.
B.C. Premier David Eby has already noted the irony of attending a Canadian leadership meeting in a province where the premier, in his words, “appears to be setting the table to leave the country.”
