Conservatives’ Lead Shrinks to Just 1% as Trump Concerns Reshape Canadian Politics

A significant shift is unfolding in Canada’s political landscape, as concerns over former U.S. President Donald Trump appear to be reshaping voter sentiment. According to the latest Nanos Research poll, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party has seen its commanding lead erode, with the Liberals—now led by Mark Carney—narrowing the gap to just one percentage point.

Released on Tuesday, the polling data places the Conservatives at 36% support, while the Liberals have surged to 35%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains at 15%, while other parties hold single-digit support. The findings suggest that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation and Carney’s leadership victory, coupled with mounting concerns over Canada-U.S. relations, have significantly influenced public opinion.

For the first time in months, anxiety over Trump’s potential return to the White House has surpassed economic concerns as the top issue for Canadians. Over the past four weeks, worries about jobs and inflation have been overtaken by fears surrounding the future of Canada’s relationship with its southern neighbor.

During this same period, Conservative support has waned while the Liberals have seen a steady rise. Just a month ago, Poilievre’s party enjoyed a nearly 20-point lead over the Liberals—an advantage that has now virtually disappeared.

“The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Conservatives at 35.7%, followed by the Liberals at 34.7%, the NDP at 14.9%, the Bloc Québécois at 7.9%, the Greens at 3.8%, and the People’s Party of Canada at 2.1%,” the report states.

The polling, conducted up until March 7—just days before Carney’s decisive leadership victory—indicates a rapidly evolving political climate.

Despite the tightening race, Poilievre remains the preferred choice for prime minister among Canadians. However, Trudeau’s approval rating has reached a 12-month high, while Poilievre’s ranking on Nanos’ “power index” has declined compared to last year.

In his victory speech, Carney wasted no time in drawing a stark contrast between himself, Poilievre, and Trump.

“Donald Trump thinks he can weaken us with his plan to divide and conquer. Pierre Poilievre’s plan will leave us divided and ready to be conquered,” Carney declared. He also vowed to push back against Trump’s policies, stating that Canada would not stand idle until the U.S. “shows some respect.”

Poilievre, on the other hand, responded to his new Liberal rival by painting Carney as a corporate elite willing to “sell out Canada for his personal profit.” Addressing reporters on Monday, Poilievre was questioned about his stance on Trump and whether Conservative members had been discouraged from displaying “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) merchandise amid growing public unease.

“My instruction is that we should put Canada first,” Poilievre stated. “I’ve also made it clear to my members of Parliament that we should favour bringing jobs back to Canada, not move them to the United States of America, as Mark Carney did when he had the chance.”

As Poilievre and Carney position themselves for a fierce showdown, the coming months will determine whether the Conservatives can reclaim their momentum or if the Liberals can capitalize on shifting public concerns to reclaim power.

Methodology: Nanos Research conducted a randomized telephone survey of 1,052 Canadians aged 18 years and over, ending March 7, 2025. The margin of error is 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.