Ontario drivers are set to face their highest gasoline prices in nearly four years this week, with pump prices in the Greater Toronto Area expected to rise to 184.9 cents per litre by Thursday, according to Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy. McTeague said gasoline would jump five cents a litre on Wednesday and another two cents on Thursday, while diesel would move in the opposite direction with projected drops of four cents and then seven cents over the same period.
McTeague told Metroland after energy markets closed Tuesday afternoon that shifts in wholesale energy markets typically show up at the pumps two days later. If the forecast holds, he said, Ontario motorists will be paying morning top-end prices not seen since July 13, 2022. Evening pump prices could still come in lower at some stations.
Gas prices have been pushed higher by turmoil in global energy markets following the war involving Iran, which began on Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, according to Reuters and AP reporting. Since then, concerns over oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rattled markets and driven crude prices sharply upward.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day moved through the strait in 2024 and early 2025, equal to about 20 per cent of global petroleum liquids consumption. Any threat to that route tends to ripple through fuel markets quickly, including in Canada.
McTeague said the split between rising gasoline prices and falling diesel prices is typical for this time of year.
“You don’t need as much diesel in the summer as you do in the winter,” he said.
Diesel demand usually eases as heating oil use declines and trucking operations no longer face the same cold-weather pressure. At the same time, gasoline demand tends to strengthen as warmer weather approaches and travel picks up ahead of the Easter long weekend in both Canada and the United States.
For drivers, the latest increase is a reminder that local fuel prices remain closely tied to global conflict and shipping disruptions. Unless pressure on oil markets eases, motorists across Ontario could continue to see elevated prices in the days ahead, even if some stations trim rates later in the day.
