(L to R) Leader of the Ontario NDP Marit Stiles, Ontario Liberal Party Leader Bonnie Crombie, Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Leader Doug Ford, Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner
Ontario’s political landscape is witnessing a shift as Progressive Conservative (PC) Leader Doug Ford’s commanding lead over the Liberals has slightly declined, a new Nanos Research poll commissioned by CTV News reveals. While Ford’s PCs still maintain a significant advantage, the gap between them and the Liberals has shrunk from 16 percentage points at the start of the campaign to 13.
The latest data, released on Monday, shows that the PCs hold 44% support among decided voters, while the Liberals have gained traction, now sitting at 31%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) lags behind at 19%, with the Green Party securing just 4% of voter backing.
“With a margin of error of three percentage points, this shift is a trendline worth monitoring closely,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research.
Ford’s popularity outside Toronto remains strong, but within the city, the political contest is tightening. The survey found that among decided voters in Toronto, 36.2% support the PCs, while 34.3% are backing the Liberals—a margin that suggests an increasingly competitive race. The NDP retains 24.5% support within the city, signaling that Toronto remains a crucial electoral battleground.
Expanding to the broader Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the PCs command 48% support among decided voters, placing them 10 percentage points ahead of the Liberals. This stronghold in the suburban belt may prove decisive as the election date of February 27 approaches.
Despite the tightening race, Doug Ford continues to be the preferred choice for premier among respondents. The survey found that 39% of those polled would choose Ford to lead the province, while Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie trails at 26%. NDP Leader Marit Stiles garnered 15% support, while Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner sits at just 5%.
Ford’s appeal appears to extend beyond party lines, as his leadership remains a decisive factor in voter preference. However, with shifting support patterns, his dominance could be tested in the coming weeks.
A separate Nanos survey conducted between February 4 and 6 highlights concerns among Ontarians outside the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) about the government’s focus on the region. Nearly half (48%) of respondents feel the PCs prioritize the GTHA at the expense of other parts of the province.
Dissatisfaction is even more pronounced in northern, eastern, central, and southwestern Ontario, where six in 10 voters believe Ford’s government caters too much to the GTHA. Specifically, 63.7% of respondents in southwestern and central Ontario and 64.7% of northeastern Ontarians share this sentiment.
Interestingly, even within the GTA, 41.5% of respondents agree that Ford focuses excessively on the region. However, Torontonians are more divided, with 38% saying the PC leader strikes the right balance in addressing concerns within and beyond the GTHA.
Overall, 28.8% of Ontarians believe the government allocates attention fairly, while 18.3% remain uncertain. A small minority—just 4.4%—feel Ford devotes too much attention to regions outside the GTHA.
The findings come from nightly tracking by Nanos Research, which conducts random interviews using a three-night rolling average of around 900 Ontario voters. The survey released on February 9 included responses from 920 voters interviewed between February 7 and February 9. The margin of error stands at 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Meanwhile, the separate poll on Ford’s regional attention was based on 904 Ontario adults surveyed via random online and telephone interviews, carrying a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
With just weeks left until the provincial election, the numbers indicate a dynamic political climate. The PCs continue to lead, but shifting support patterns—particularly in urban centers like Toronto—suggest a race that could tighten further.
