Ontario universities report growing financial pressure as federal limits on international student numbers trigger sharp enrollment drops and rising budget shortfalls. The Council of Ontario Universities says revenue losses tied to the cap are projected to exceed $2.1 billion over three years.
The council shared updated figures showing an estimated revenue loss of about $300 million last year, $700 million this year, and a projected $1.1 billion next year. Steve Orsini, president and CEO of the council, says declining international enrollment is driving the shortfall.
Orsini says universities lost about $300 million in 2023 alone due to the early impact of federal restrictions. He says institutions have already reduced programs, services, and staffing by almost $550 million in recent years. He warns that the next wave of reductions will be deeper if revenue continues to fall.
Ottawa introduced a national cap on international student permits in January 2024. The move slowed new arrivals across the college and university sector, leading to widespread enrollment declines. The federal government then tightened allocations again this week for 2026.
New federal numbers show Ontario will receive 104,780 study permit applications for 2026 with a target of 70,074 approved permits. The province will also receive part of the national allocation of 49,000 spots for master’s and PhD students. Ontario received 149,011 applications for 2025 along with 32,579 graduate-level spots.
Federal data shows the total number of international study permit holders in Canada dropped from more than one million in January 2024 to about 725,000 by September 2025.
Orsini says universities are reaching a breaking point. He points to a 17 percent rise in Ontario high school applicants over the past five years. He says domestic demand keeps rising while international tuition revenue falls. He adds that institutions are dealing with long-standing pressures from a 10 percent tuition cut and freeze introduced in 2019.
He says shrinking budgets are limiting the sector’s ability to train future workers and support research growth. He calls higher education an investment in the province’s economic future.
Bianca Giacoboni, press secretary to Colleges and Universities Minister Nolan Quinn, says the federal changes are destabilizing the postsecondary system. She says Ontario received a reduced allocation for 2026 and the province is reviewing its approach. She says the province aims to attract top students for sectors with labour shortages.
Orsini says the council is working with both levels of government to protect talent pipelines. He notes that the federal budget included $1.7 billion to support research recruitment. He says focusing on quality international students is essential for competitiveness in a global economy.
