Toronto voters are casting ballots today in federal byelections in University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, part of a three-riding vote that could hand Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals a majority government in the House of Commons. A third byelection is underway in Terrebonne, Que. Elections Canada says polls are open Monday, April 13, in all three ridings. With the Liberals sitting at 171 seats, one short of the 172 needed for a majority in the 343-seat chamber, even a single win would carry major consequences in Ottawa.
The University-Rosedale race was triggered after Chrystia Freeland stepped down from Parliament in January to take an advisory role with the government of Ukraine. Scarborough Southwest became vacant after former cabinet minister Bill Blair resigned to become Canada’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. Both ridings have been Liberal-held seats for years, making today’s results a closely watched measure of whether the party still dominates its Toronto base.
The stakes stretch well beyond Toronto. Reuters and AP report the Liberals reached 171 seats after attracting five opposition MPs through floor crossings, leaving Carney one seat away from majority control. A one-seat majority would still be narrow, especially because the Speaker does not normally vote, but it would strengthen the government’s position on confidence matters and legislation. Two wins would give the Liberals more breathing room and make it harder for opposition parties to threaten the government’s survival.
In Scarborough Southwest, Liberal candidate Doly Begum faces Conservative Diana Filipova, NDP candidate Fatima Shaban and independent April Francisco, among others. In University-Rosedale, Liberal Danielle Martin is up against Conservative Don Hodgson, NDP candidate Serena Purdy and Green candidate Andrew Massey. The Liberals enter both races from strong positions. In the 2025 general election, Freeland won University-Rosedale with 64.0 per cent of the vote, while Blair took Scarborough Southwest with 61.5 per cent. Still, any tighter result, or an upset, would raise fresh questions about Carney’s political strength one year after the last federal election.
